Hurricane Milton – October 9, 2024

NOAA GOES-EAST GEOCOLOR Satellite Imagery of Hurricane Milton

GEOCOLOR satellite imagery of Hurricane Milton from NOAA’s GOES-East Satellite.

As Hurricane Milton barrels towards Florida as a Category 5 storm, some residents are evacuating while others brace for the impact of yet another hurricane. Only two weeks after Hurricane Helene, resources are already stretched thin. With maximum sustained winds around 145 miles per hour and wind gusts upwards of 170 miles per hour (as of 11 am on 10/9), Hurricane Milton looks to slightly weaken as it approaches landfall.

The track of the storm is heading to the east-northeast, on a direct path towards central Florida. Sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Coast of Florida are in the upper 80s (Fahrenheit), which could lead to a stronger storm. However, strong low-to-mid level wind shear will help to weaken the storm near landfall. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that maximum sustained winds will decrease to around 125 miles per hour, with wind gusts exceeding 150 miles per hour. Even with the decrease in sustained winds, Milton will remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) at landfall.

3 Day Cone Forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The 3-day forecast cone from the NHC, showing Milton’s landfall as a major hurricane. Most of Florida’s coastline is under Hurricane Warnings or Tropical Storm Warnings.

The entirety of Central Florida is under a Hurricane Warning. The rest of Florida is under a Tropical Storm Warning, with some areas also under a Hurricane Watch. These include both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of Florida, as well as inland areas. Locations along the Atlantic Coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina are under Tropical Storm Watches. As a quick reminder on the difference between a watch and a warning, a watch means that conditions are possible to be a warning, and a warning means that conditions are present or imminent. Landfall of Hurricane Milton is forecasted by the NHC to be around 1am, Thursday, October 10. Bands of heavy rain could drop upwards of 1-1.5 feet locally. Most of central Florida is predicted to receive widespread 4-8 inches of rain, with the cities of Tampa Bay and Orlando in the highest impact areas.

WPC Rainfall Map for Hurricane Milton

Predicted rainfall amounts from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) for Days 1-2 (October 9-11). Higher rainfall amounts are predicted for areas north of Tampa Bay and Orlando.

High storm surge and heavy rainfall could lead to major flooding in Tampa Bay and other areas inland. Coastal areas along the Gulf in central Florida could see storm surge upwards of 10-15 feet. Areas to the north and south of the strongest inner bands could see storm surge between 5-10 feet, decreasing farther to the north and south. Along the Atlantic coast, many areas could see 3-5 feet of storm surge.

Peak Storm Surge Forecast from the NHC

Peak storm surge forecast from the NHC, highlighting areas south of Tampa Bay for the highest storm surge. The Atlantic coast of Florida, Georgia, and southern South Carolina could see impacts from Hurricane Milton’s storm surge.

It might be too late to evacuate out of Florida. Normally, moving farther inland will reduce the impacts of most major storms. However, the trajectory of Hurricane Milton will make inland areas dangerous. Tornadoes are also observed with the outer bands of Milton. Don’t wait, take action now! Most evacuation routes will be congested and supplies will run scarce. Remain calm and patient, listen to emergency and public officials, and remember to take any personal documents with you in a water-tight bag. For people stuck in prone areas, get to the highest floor in your building, place any documents in a waterproof bag, stay away from exterior walls and windows, and make sure you have a charged battery pack. Always remember to stay out of flooded waters when traveling. This is a major hurricane, so listen to public and emergency officials for the latest updates.

Evacuation Orders from the Florida Division of Emergency Management